Comment Trolling: American Idol analysis

OK, folks. I've been slack, and you've noticed and I don't get comments any more. This will now change, as I will unashamedly bring up the subject everyone wants to talk about: American Idol.

This season of AI has been my first - I never watched it regularly before now. I hear that this season has been the best, and I must agree that it is definitely a better show than the few spots I caught here and there in previous years. After watching Rockstar:INXS this summer, I had to admit that the singing on INXS was much better than AI. This is still true, but AI is a different animal, in that it encourages singers with little or no experience to try out, whereas INXS required a resume' of sorts to get on the show.

This season has pleased me and disappointed me. We had a strong final 12 (with the exception of Kevin Covais), and a broad selection of musical styles to choose from amongst them. What has disappointed me, however, is a fairly low musical IQ to go with all that talent in the contestants.

Here's my individual analysis of the final 12:

Ace Young
Ace had girl appeal. He wasn't the most masculine contestant and his song choices were notoriously poor. His best performances were "Father Figure" and "Tonight I Want To Cry". America grew tired of Ace in week 6, and he was in the bottom 3 all but one week after that. I predict we'll never hear from him again.

Bucky Covington
Bucky survived a long time on his personality, but his voice wasn't strong enough to pull off a win. Even when he got to sing country, where he was strongest, he was frequently drowned out by the backup band, and was off-pitch a lot of the time. Bucky was surprisingly good in his song choices, though, and I think that kept him around much longer than expected. His best performances were two of his last three: "Real Good Man" and "Best I Ever Had". If Bucky can get a good agent and some vocal coaching, he just might be heard from again in the future.

Chris Daughtry
Chris is the favorite to win this thing. He is versatile and has a good musical IQ. He's also experienced, fronting his own band back in McLeansville, NC. Chris nearly lost his audience when he sang a Creed song back in week 6 and Simon accosted him for being too "indulgent" with his song choices. Chris took that advice to heart and has chosen to show that he is more than just a "rocker" since then. His appearance in the bottom 3 this week is an anomaly and won't be repeated. I think that Kellie's poor performance this week caused a sympathy vote swing at Chris's expense. If Chris is lucky, he'll be the runner-up and get a better contract than the default one given to the winner (a la Clay Aiken).

Elliott Yamin
Elliott is quite talented, but totally unpolished. He sings vanilla vanilla vanilla, which is good, but boring. He also refuses to take risks on high notes or difficult arpeggio runs, which will doom him. He lost my vote during the Queen show when he declined to finish "Somebody to Love" the way the song demands to be finished (with a high note and arpeggios). Take some risks, man! I predict his demise in the next couple of weeks. Elliott will probably never be heard from again after AI wraps up.

Katharine McPhee
I put her just behind Chris as the front runner at this point. She's got it all. If she can just find a decent dress to wear occasionally. Her song choices have held her back, but lately, she seems to have gotten it figured out. Her last two performances, "Who Wants To Live Forever", and "Someone To Watch Over Me", have been masterpieces and closed the gap. Katharine will be big-time someday. I predict she has a nice recording career and ends up headlining in Vegas. If she wins, she will eclipse Kelly Clarkson as a star (not right away, but eventually).

Kellie Pickler
She's #3 at this point. Kellie gives new meaning to "raw" talent. This girl needs a manager and vocal coach because she's country gold just waiting to happen. Surviving one of the worst performances ever seen on AI, Kellie did it on sheer personality. Kellie has picked great songs except for two, "Suds in the Bucket" and "Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered" last week. This indicates to me that she's smarter than she's letting on. If she had chosen Katharine's song instead (Someone To Watch Over Me), she'd have hit the home run her fans have been waiting for. Now that she's survived that debacle, her voters are exposed - they are voting for her, not for her performances. I predict that someone coaches this girl into a dazzling Nashville career. She could be the next Dolly Parton.

Taylor Hicks
You have to love this guy. Taylor is great, but has shown an annoying tendency to pick loser songs. Taylor is not very versatile, and he has to know that and choose songs that he can hit out of the park. I put him at #4 right now. Next week's theme will really challenge him, but I think, like Kellie, that he has his votes locked up every week, and how he does from week to week isn't really that important to his voters. Taylor will end up in Vegas when it's all over.

Paris Bennett
She's good. Damn good. If the girl only pronounced the lyrics correctly, we'd have something. It's annoying! "Live" is "Leave", "Love" is "Loaf", etc. The people that have been voting for her aren't enough to keep her in the competition much longer, I'm afraid. Paris was born 50 years too late, and I just don't think there is an audience for the music she wants to sing, the way she wants to sing it. I predict she'll go to college and lose interest in a singing career after AI.

Kevin Covais
He didn't belong on stage with the rest of these people. Very little talent or charisma. I'm glad he's gone, because his performances cheapened those of the other performers. If we ever see him again, it will be as an actor, after he grows up.

Lisa Tucker
She was a poor man's Paris. There's only enough room for one Paris. Sorry.

Mandisa
Mandisa has talent, and a heck of a set of pipes and a good musical IQ. I think her gospel style and her looks doomed her in this competition.

Melissa McGhee
Ah. Melissa. #1 example of how poor song choice can get you sent home. She made bad choices three weeks in a row and went home long before her talent deserved it. I wish Ayla Brown had survived in her place. Seriously, Melissa, how could you let Kevin outlast you? My prediction is that Playboy gets her to pose some time in the near future.

So that's my analysis. A lot of these folks let bad song choices send them home.

My advice to future Idol-wanna-bes:
1. Identify the threats and the losers early on.
2. While a loser survives, take risks with your style. As long as they are worse than you are, you're safe. Early in the season, it's OK to whiff on one as long as one total loser remains to get booted off ahead of you. Taking risks earns you votes. If you are the loser that's just hanging on, go vanilla and do something else to earn votes, like snark off at Simon.
3. Show personality and build a fan base early.
4. Get better every week. Don't relax and take a week off with something safe.
5. Pick songs the audience knows.
6. Do NOT pick a song by a current artist unless you are prepared to change it radically, or else do it better than the artist.
7. Once the losers are gone, you must swing for the fence every week.
8. Don't listen to the show's stylists unless you are completely hopeless on your own.
9. Listen to Simon's advice and ignore Paula and Randy's advice. Be nice to Paula, though.
10. Know what you do well and make sure you do it every week.
11. Don't let the guest artist pick your song for you.
12. Once your fan base is built, they will vote for you no matter what.
13. If the night's theme is your favorite, you have to hit a home run. No excuses. You can lose your fan base if you don't 'have a moment' here.
14. Be aware that it is the voters that keep you alive every week, not the judges. Suck up to the camera, not to Simon.